Heat Pump Pricing Index

Heat pump types

Three main system architectures dominate U.S. residential installs. The right one for your home depends on your existing HVAC, climate zone, and budget.

Ducted air-source

$9,000–$16,000

Most common; reuses existing ductwork.

Best for: Most climates (cold-climate-certified models below 5°F)
Pros
  • Lowest cost when ductwork already exists
  • Familiar to most contractors — competitive bidding
  • Easy to integrate with existing thermostats
Trade-offs
  • Duct losses can drop efficiency 10-25%
  • Whole-home single zone — uneven cooling/heating
  • Requires ducts in good condition (or duct sealing)

Ductless mini-split

$5,000–$12,000

Modular zone-by-zone heating and cooling.

Best for: All climates; especially strong in mild + cold-marine
Pros
  • No duct losses — highest real-world efficiency
  • Zone-by-zone control (one head per room)
  • Ideal for older homes without existing ducts
Trade-offs
  • Indoor heads are visible (wall, ceiling, or floor)
  • Higher per-zone install cost than ducted
  • Specialized installer pool (smaller than ducted)

Geothermal (ground-source)

$22,000–$40,000

Highest efficiency; uses earth as heat reservoir.

Best for: All — performance is climate-independent
Pros
  • Lowest operating cost (COP 4-5 year-round)
  • No outdoor unit (loops are buried or submerged)
  • 50+ year ground loop life vs. 15 for air-source
Trade-offs
  • 2-3× higher upfront cost (ground loop drilling)
  • Yard disruption during install
  • Long payback (8-15 years vs. 4-7 for air-source)

How to choose

Start with what you already have. If your home has functional ducts and a gas furnace or electric resistance heat, a ducted air-source heat pump is usually the cheapest path. If you have no ducts (older homes, additions, or finished basements), a ductless mini-split avoids the cost of running new ductwork.

Geothermal makes economic sense in two situations: (1) new construction where the loop install is folded into earthwork already happening, or (2) homes with very high heating loads in cold climates where air-source efficiency drops. For most existing homes, the payback period is too long to justify the upfront premium.

For your local cost estimate including rebates, use the rebate calculator or browse cost by city.